Salman Bagirov American bureau of Azeri.Today

Azeri.Today interviews professor of international relations at Boston University's Pardee School Michael Corgan.

— The unexpected victory of Republican-billionaire Donald Trump in the US presidential election has become No 1 topic in almost all world media outlets. Renowned analysts try to guess what Trump’s presidency may bring to America and the world and how he is going to act on the post of the president? And what can you say about this?

— The tone set by Donald Trump during his campaign for the presidency has been one of unpredictability, and that will likely continue into his early days in office. Even now, as his transition team begin to prepare for his administration, he has shown a different side than in his campaign. For instance, he has been most gracious in his compliments to Barack Obama who he had long accused of not even being born American. “He’s a fine man” Trump said twice at their first meeting. And if one looks at his campaign statements, the number of contradictory statements or promises is remarkable. We also have seen him seem to back away from some of his more dramatic pronouncements.

We don’t know how he will behave and I expect he doesn’t either. Recall that he has had absolutely no experience in any level of government. Now he is starting at the top of the one government that has interests everywhere in the world.

— They say that Trump’s presidency will end the war in the Middle East. Is it true?

— The Middle East has been “at war’ for a very long time and I am sure that will go on regardless of who leaders are including Trump. He seems likely to concede control of things in Syria, as much as they can be controlled, to Putin and Assad. On the other hand he strongly supports Israel, one of his few consistent foreign affairs positions, and this means no two-state solution for the Israeli -Palestinian confrontation.

— Will the confrontation continue between the US and Russia in Ukraine and the Middle East under  Trump?

— As to the Ukraine, I believe Trump will decide there is no vital US interest at stake in holding Russian interests in check. Ukraine will have to make the best deal it can with Putin, even if that means losing territory. For that matter, I’d be worried if I were one of the Baltic states. Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich, now spoken of as a major contender for Secretary of State, has said that Estonia is “virtually a suburb of St. Petersburg.”

— German Defense Minister Ursula von der Lyayen, not hiding emotions, urged US President-elect Donald Trump "to clarify on which side he is." Von der Lyayen said Trump must clearly define his position on Russia and not engage in "the establishment of male friendship" with President Vladimir Putin .... What policies will Trump’s administration pursue towards Russia?

— As in my comments above, I believe Trump will be more willing to negotiate with Russia on just about anything. Although Trump indeed does have a complete lack of governing experience, he does see himself, with some justification, as a great negotiator. To him, foreign policy will be all about making deals. As he has told us, he wants to renegotiate, NAFTA, the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris Climate Agreement, and the trade agreements we have with China, among others. He thinks he can do better for the US and he will likely try.

— And what will happen to Europe under Trump?

— Europe will have to look to itself more than at any time since the end of World War II. NATO will be under severe scrutiny if current members do not live up to a pledge to devote 2% of GDP to military spending. The focus of a Trump administration will not be on foreign policy but on a domestic agenda to undo what Obama has done.

— Among the countries of the former Soviet Union Trump’s election for president causes strong concerns only in Armenia and Ukraine. What do you think has caused the concern of these countries?

— Ukraine's government has to be worried about Donald Trump's often expressed admiration for Vladimir Putin. Trump says he can get along with Putin and make better deals with him than the Obama administration had in its early attempts to "reset relations" with Russia. Early in his campaign Trump seemed unaware that Russia had re-taken Crimea or that Russian soldiers had been covertly aiding rebel forces in eastern Ukraine although that was the finding of US intelligence agencies. Trump has indicated that he will reconsider sanctions imposed by western European countries on Russia because of its involvement in Ukraine.

Armenia, like many other countries, cannot be sure where Trump and his people stand with respect to issues that concern them. During his campaign foreign affairs, except for trade agreements, were never a key part. When foreign affairs did come up, there were many shifts of position including some outright reversals. What does this mean for Armenia, the OSCE Minsk process and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, generally? Early in his campaign Armenians, especially the community in Florida, gave Trump a negative evaluation. Later, Trump seemed to be in favor of supporting a US resolution condemning Turkish genocide against Armenians. Where does the matter stand with him now? Always keeping in mind that Donald Trump is by all his experience a businessman, matters do not seem positive for Armenia. Trump's businesses have major investments in both Turkey, the Trump Hotel in Istanbul, and in Azerbaijan, with significant business dealings with Anar Mammadov. There appear to be no such important business connections with Armenia.

The answer for both Ukraine and Armenia is that they will have to wait and see. Trump changes his views quite frequently. Trump has said he will put his businesses into a "blind trust" trust to be run by his children. That arrangement, using his own immediate family, would not satisfy most legal experts and scholars but, curiously, while all other US officials must put business holdings where a conflict of interest with their duties could arise into a blind trust, neither the president nor vice president must do so. Business affairs in Turkey and Azerbaijan but not in Armenia are the best indicator of how he might lean.

As president, Trump may in time become a statesman but for now he is a businessman".

Источник: Azeri.Today