Dmitriy Rodionov shares his opinion
Moscow bureau of Azeri.Today
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned the US that Tehran would terminate the nuclear agreement "within hours" and return to the previous stage if sanctions are imposed on the country.
"They (the Trump administration) should know that the deplorable experience of sanctions has dragged the former governments to the negotiating table and if they want to return to this experience, Iran can return to a situation that is more advanced than before the time of negotiations within hours," Rouhani explained.
How serious is Iran in its rhetoric? And what can be the implications of exit from nuclear deal for Iran?
Russian political expert, head of the Center for Geopolitical Studies at the Institute for Innovative Development Dmitry Rodionov answered these and other questions of Azeri.Today.
According to him, Rouhani is now in an unenviable position.
"For all these years the country has been facing a confrontation between two vectors: modernist, West-friendly and aimed at liberalization of the economy and political life in the country, and conservative, aimed at exactly the opposite. Rouhani positioned himself as a supporter of the first path of development, and all this time he had to withstand the pressure of conservatives. A successful nuclear deal was written into his asset; this was the main achievement of his previous term. In many respects, his victory in the past election is due precisely to the achievements of the previous years. Today, all these achievements are under threat of de facto nullification. Rouhani faces a difficult choice: to continue the previous course, experiencing colossal pressure both from exterior - from the US that does not care who the president in Iran is and for whom Iran is just guilty of their thirst, and inside the country. Or fulfill his threat. In this case, he will give the US a reason to justify attacks on Iran and also lose support from Europe and Russia, who also participated in the deal and whom he would thus betray. The situation is extremely unpleasant - Iran became a victim of internal political conflicts and foreign policy instability in the United States, and Rouhani is turning into a 'scapegoat' already at the very beginning of his new term", the Russian political expert said.
At the same time, Rodionov believes that Iran will not withdraw from the deal.
"The Iranian economy has just felt relief, it has not yet begun to breathe in full, and it will be difficult to drive it back under tough sanctions, since this will cause colossal resistance within the country. In addition, Iran now needs European support and trade ties with it. And even more, it needs the support from Moscow, which also fell under the new US sanctions and is interested in a joint search for ways out of this situation. By the way, just like Europe, whose energy security is put at risk. Iran's withdrawal from the deal will automatically alienate all current and potential allies from it and will untie the aggressor's hands," he said.
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